The year was 2001, and the telecom bubble was beginning to collapse and lead the global economy into an exceedingly dark place for a very long time. Companies in the telecom and IT sectors failed by the dozens, confidence in the sector declined precipitously, and investment in telecom and IT infrastructure declined to glacially slow levels. the telecom industry took up a position in the “ugly quadrant” of the graph of economic indicators that appears in Business Week Magazine each week. Those were ugly times, and we are loathe to repeat them.

The good news is that in spite of the economic downturn that we are all experiencing, telecom and IT seem to be … OK. There is a certain amount of belt-tightening in response to cautious reports from the industries that rely on infrastructure, but that falls into the category of prudent spending control, not the out-of-control mania that characterized the great meltdown of the Dot-Com bubble. Furthermore, telecom and IT remain in the relatively healthy economic quadrant, and hopefully will stay there. Why?

The Dot-Com bubble collapsed under the weight of its own ridiculousness. In retrospect, there was really nothing holding it up - a classic example of the Emperor’s New Coat. When the little boy pointed out that the emperor was naked - or, to reflect on our own industry, that the industry’s manic growth was without merit - reality crept in and the bubble collapsed like a house of cards in a strong wind.

This time, the story is different. There is every reason to believe that we are on the leading edge of the next great technology bubble, but THIS time, the bubble is supported by real products and real services that justify the long, steady growth that characterizes any bubble. This time the growth is due to a perfect convergent storm: the convergence of universal broadband, extraordinarily capable end-user devices, the evolution of the network from a TDM-dependent, core-based architecture to an IP and MPLS-dependent, edge-based model, the tremendous availability of desirable content, and a market that is evolving in leaps and bounds and that actually wants the content that is being made available. This is very, very good news for telecom and IT, because the best content in the world does nothing for us without a good network to deliver it over, or good tools to manage it..

Success is also dependent upon the ability and willingness to understand market demand better than we ever have before, and to put into place data collection mechanisms and analysis routines that will give us the ability to accurately and immediately respond to customer requirements. No doubt about it, this is a (cautiously) good time for the industry. Will there be speed bumps? Absolutely. But never before have we seen such opportunities for responsible leadership in the industry.

Thoughts? Thanks for reading!

As many of you know, I spend a lot of time observing animals in the telecom zoo – specifically the companies that make up this wonderful menagerie that we’re all part of. A few of the animals exhibit behaviors that are different enough from the rest of the pack that they bear watching a bit more closely than the rest. One of these today is Google.

I get a kick out of the constant flow of articles, blogs, editorials and analyses that predict Google’s imminent demise as the result of excessive size, excessive diversity, inadequate vision, and growing competition. And while I do not believe that Google will continue to grow at the supersonic pace that has characterized its growth over the last few years, I do believe that the company will continue to grow and diversify.

Let’s be realistic: As a company scales upward in size, its growth rate necessarily scales downward because of simple geometry: its “surface area” becomes so great that it can’t sustain the same growth velocity. Google’s growth rate will unquestionably slow.

Every time I think that Google has stepped over the “line of reasonableness” in terms of strategic actions, I soon find myself chuckling over the brilliance of their actions. The company is immensely diverse: VoIP, screen sharing, digital photography, desktop applications, call routing, social networking, and telecom access and transport are but a few of the lines of business in Google’s portfolio. From any perspective, they are largely unrelated; I can draw a parallel between VoIP and access & transport, but what about social networking, or digital photography?

The key here is that Google has a singular focus on its own success, made possible by a remarkable philosophy that serves them well. The best way to become a leader? Find a parade and get in front of it. Google’s mission in life is to seek out parades and get in front of them. Every line of business they have entered is popular and central to some aspect of enterprise or consumer social life. By entering businesses that attract customers and keep them close, Google’s opportunity to expose those customers to advertising, their real revenue-generating business, is vastly improved.

On the way out? Not as far as I’m concerned – I think they’re just getting started.

/Steve

Here we go! Folks, welcome to the Executive Crash Course Web site and first blog entry. I’m Steve Shepard, one of the founders of the Executive Crash Course. Let me tell you what we’re about. During the bubble years, it seemed that everyone had all the answers, but nobody seemed to know what the questions were! Then, predictably, the bubble collapsed under the weight of its own ridiculousness, proving that good Web sites and catchy jingles are no match for tangible products, a solid customer base and a viable business plan. Interesting, isn’t it, that the companies that survived the long, post-nuclear winter that followed the bubble’s collapse were not the exciting the dot-coms, but rather the old, slow-moving, customer (and therefore revenue) rich telephone companies.

I watch this industry like a hawk, looking for trends and indicators that tell me which way the technological wind is blowing. And here’s what I see: We’re on the leading edge of the next great bubble, a bubble that will probably last about 20 years, create huge upheaval and generate enormous wealth.

Now before you run screaming from the room, here’s the good news. The Emperor’s New Coat doesn’t play a role here. This bubble is based on real companies, with real products, generating real revenue. So it’s a good time to be in this industry, as long as you understand what the industry has become.

The battle is no longer a battle for market supremacy – it’s a battle for market relevance. And relevance comes from one thing and one thing only – self-interest. Whatever company is perceived to be the most relevant wins the game. This means delivering the right technologies, the right applications, and the appropriate network infrastructure to the right customer. It also means taking advantage of all that the technology, media and telecommunications markets have to offer including creating new delivery schemes, new advertising methodologies, new forms of compelling content, new access devices, and new methods for billing. This, to me, is about as exciting as it gets, and these are the primary driving forces behind this new bubble

So what do you think? What have I left off? Where are the speedbumps on this road?